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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

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发表于 2020-3-25 08:49 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:50 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 吴翰林 于 2020-3-28 22:01 编辑

《Reminiscences of a Stock Operator》
股魔回忆录》


I went to work when I was just out of grammar school. I got a job as quotation-board boy in a stock-brokerage office. I was quick at figures. At school I did three years of arithmetic in one. I was particularly good at mental arithmetic. As quotation-board boy I posted the numbers on the big board in the customers' room. One of the customers usually sat by the ticker and called out the prices. They couldn't come too fast for me. I have always remembered figures. No trouble at all.
苦逼呀,老子小学出来就上班鸟,在一个股吧里头当吼吼。
数字我厉害惨鸟,三年的算术老子一年就整完鸟。特别是心算,简直屌炸天。
作为一个吼吼,我的活儿就是在一块大板子上写股票价格。那时候报价系统古老得很,交易中心的价格通过电报传到股吧来。通常有一个猴急的股民坐在电报机前面,他把价格吼出来,我就写在大板子上。他吼再快我都写得赢,easy!

There were plenty of other employers in that office. Of course I made friends with the other fellows, but the work I did, if the market was active, kept me too busy from ten A.M. to three P.M. to let me do much talking. I don't care for it. anyhow, during business hours.
当然我也交了些狐朋狗友,股吧里还有不少打工仔。只是股市活跃的时候肯定是没空扯犊子的,上午10点到下午3点,忙得屁股冒烟烟。不过忙就忙呗,小爷无所谓。

But a busy market did not keep me from thinking about the work. Those quotaitons did not represent prices of stocks to me, so many dollars per share. They were numbers. Of course, they meant something. They were always changing. It was all I had to be interested in - the changes. Why did they change? I didn't know. I didn't care. I didn't think about that. I simply saw that they changed. That was all I had to  think about five hours every day and two on Saturdays: that they were always changing.
再忙也不耽误小爷思考。对我来说,电报发过来的行情并不代表股票的价格,多少美元一股什么的。数字,它们只是数字而已。当然它们肯定意味着什么,因为他们总是不断地变来变去。
我唯一感兴趣就是这个“变来变去”。它们为啥子总是变来变去呢?我不知道。我也不想知道。我根本就不在乎这个。
我就是简简单单地看着它们变来变去,我全部的注意力就放在这个变来变去——星期一至五,每天五小时,再加上星期六的两小时——我就全身心地盯着它们变来变去。

That is how I first came to be interested in the behaviour of prices. I had a very good memory for figures. I could remember in detail how the prices had acted on the previous day, just before they went up or down. My fondness for mental arithmetic came in very handy.
那是我最初对股性提起兴趣。对于数字,我有非常好的记忆力。我清清楚楚地记得头一天的价格变动,我是说价格变动的细节,每时每刻的变动细节,不论是涨还是跌。
我对心算的热情给我的帮助实在是太他妈的大鸟。
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:51 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:51 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 吴翰林 于 2020-3-27 11:29 编辑

I noticed that in advances as well as declines, stock prices were apt to show certain habits, so to speak. There was no end of paralled cases and these made precedents to guide me. I was only fourteen, but after I had hundreds of ovservations in my mind I found myself testing their accuracy, comparing the behaviour of stocks to-day with other days. It was not long before I was anticipating movements in prices. My only guide, as I say, was their past performances. I carried the "dope sheets" in my mind. I looked for stock prices to run on form. I had "clocked" them. You know what I mean.
我注意到,无论上涨还是下跌,股票价格的“变来变去”似乎都表现出某种一以贯之的“脾气”,这么说吧,它们有自己的性格。
我那时才14岁,但是成百上千的股价波动模式保存在我的脑海里,我自然而然地开始根据历史相似案例来预判股价“今日”的表现。不久,我发现我能预测股价的波动了。我唯一的根据——我说过了——就是它们过去的表现,这就是我的“内幕消息”。我寻找价格变动的“模式”,我对它们进行“卡秒”——你懂的。


You can spot, for instance, where the buying is only a trifle better than the selling. A battle goes on in the stock market and the tape is your telescope. You can depend upon it seven out of ten cases.
比如,你可以观察到什么地方买盘略强于卖盘。战斗在股市打响了,而电报机打出来的行情纸带就是你的望远镜,十次有七次吧,你是可以信任它的。

Another lesson I learned early in that there is nothing new in Wall Streeet. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whateveer happens in the sotck market to-day has happened before and will happen again. I've never forgotten that. I suppose I really manage to remember when and how it happened. The fact that I remember that way is my way of capitalizing experience.
入市早期的一课,是我学习到:华尔街上没有新鲜事物!
投机就像山脉一样古老,怎么会新鲜呢?不论今天股市上发生了什么屌炸天的鬼事情,它们都在历史上早已发生过,以后也还会层出不穷——这是我永远不会忘记的血淋淋的教训。

I got so intereted in my game and so anxious to anticipate advances and declines in all the active stocks that I got a little book. I put down my observations in it. It was not a record of imaginary transactions such as so many people keep merely to make or lose millions of dollars without getting the swelled head and going to the poorhouse. It was rather a sort of record of my hits and misses, and next to the determination of probable movements I was most intereted in verifying whether I had observed accurately; in other words, whether I was right.
我是那么地沉迷于这个游戏,我热切地预判股价的涨跌,我把它们记在一个小本上面。和那些玩虚拟盘交易的人不一样,我记录的是我的观察——就像是我的球场记录本,每一次的挥棒,每一次击中,每一次挥空——我在意的是我预判的走势是否被股价的真实波动所印证,换句话说——小爷是不是对了。
而那些玩虚拟盘的意淫分子呢,他们无论日进斗金,还是沦落街头,不过是纸上谈兵的牛皮大王而已。


Say that after studying every fluctuation of the day in an active stock I would conclude that it was behaving as it always did before it broke eight or ten points. Well I would jot down the stock and the price on Monday, and remembering past perfomances I would write down what it ought to do on Tuesday and Wednesday. Later I would chek up with actual transcriptions from the tape.
假如我研究了一支活跃票一整天的走势——每一次的波动,我得出结论:这票在重跌八到十个点之前总是表现出某种相似的盘面特征,那么,我就会在星期一把它记录下来,然后根据它过去的表现预判它星期二和星期三的走势。
然后呢,当然是根据周二周三的实际走势来验证小爷的预判是否正确。
诸位看官,请注意,小爷的兴趣就只是研究股票的走势,我的兴奋点就只是我的预判被市场验证我并未开始任何真正的交易。
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:52 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 吴翰林 于 2020-3-28 22:00 编辑

That is how I first came to make an interest in the message of the tape. The fluctuations were from the first associatied in my mind with upward or downward movements. Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn't go into explanations. I didn't ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and I don't ask it to-day, at forty. The reason for what a certain stock does to-day may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your business with the tape is now - not to-morrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left.
这就是我当初怎么入坑的,怎么对行情纸带发生兴趣的。行情的波动从一开始就和我记忆中的“变来变去”联系在一起。
当然,波动肯定是原因的。但是这纸带似乎并不关心原因,它没告诉我为什么为什么。我十四岁的时候没问过为什么,现在我四十岁了,还是不会问它为什么。
一支票今天的表现,其原因可能两三天都搞不清楚,或者两三周都搞不清楚,甚至TMD三个月都搞球不清楚,你说你关心这些鬼东西干啥?你要干的无非是买或者卖——就现在,等你明天搞清楚了再来买卖?黄花菜都凉了!
理由——还是等那些股神、股评家”去瞎忽悠吧,你要做的是赶紧决定买,或者卖。

Time and again I see this happen. You'll remember that Hollow Tube went down three points the other day while the rest of the market rallied sharply. That was the fact. On the following Monday you saw that the directors passed the dividend. That was the reason. They knew what they were going to do, and even if they didn't sell the stock themselves they at least didn't buy it. There was no inside buying; no reason why it should not break.
三番五次,我看到这一幕反复发生。还记得吧,Hollow Tube这支票,有一天市场大涨,它却下跌了3个点。你需要面对的事实是——它逆市下跌了。至于理由,下周一出新闻报道了——董事会通过了分红方案。那些杀千刀的,他们早就晓得了,就算他们自己不卖,至少他们不会买吧。主力不买,不跌才怪。
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:53 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:54 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:54 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:55 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 08:57 | 显示全部楼层

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发表于 2020-3-25 12:50 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
牛逼啊
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 13:03 | 显示全部楼层

先开一帖,得闲慢慢翻译。
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-25 13:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 吴翰林 于 2020-5-15 08:48 编辑

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